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Current spike in oil price expected to be short-term, says economist

Economists warn the RM1.99 petrol cap may be unsustainable if crude prices climb further, with tiered subsidies or income-based targeting proposed as solutions.

rakesh by rakesh
03/03/2026
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Current spike in oil price expected to be short-term, says economist
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Malaysia’s fuel subsidy is under strain, with oil prices surging amid Middle East tensions and economists saying the RM1.99 petrol cap may not hold if crude oil price climbs further.

According to the Sun Daily, brent crude has moved into the US$80–US$90 per barrel range as geopolitical risk intensifies in the Gulf, raising the prospect of a sharply higher subsidy bill should the conflict involving Iran drag on.

For millions of motorists who rely on the subsidised RON95 price for daily commutes, school runs and small businesses, the question is no longer whether global oil markets are volatile, but how long Putrajaya could continue absorbing the shock.

Economist Dr Geoffrey Williams said he expects the current spike to be short-term, with prices moderating once tensions ease.

“I see Brent crude at US$80–US$90 per barrel this week, and it has already started close to the bottom of that range today.”

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