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Declining outlook for Australian gas and LNG

IEEFA’s updated data tool shows weakening demand here and abroad.

rakesh by rakesh
23/12/2025
in News
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Declining outlook for Australian gas and LNG

The Australian Gas and LNG Tracker allows users to visualise Australia’s gas production and LNG export demand and flows.

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The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has released an update of its Australian Gas and LNG Tracker, its interactive data visualisation tool on Australia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry and trade.

The Australian Gas and LNG Tracker allows users to visualise Australia’s gas production and LNG export demand and flows. It uses data compiled from a range of authoritative sources, including Kpler and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), along with IEEFA’s own analysis. The latest version of the Tracker updates and expands upon the previous version, released in June.

Key findings revealed in the updated Australian Gas and LNG Tracker include:

  • Australia’s LNG exports fell in the first half of 2025 to their lowest level in four years, driven almost entirely by falling exports from Western Australia. This was caused, in part, by Woodside mothballing a train at its North West Shelf LNG plant.
  • Asian LNG imports saw the largest half-year fall (in the first half of 2025) in the period since 2010, with imports down by 9%. China was a key driver, with its imports down 21% year on year.
  • LNG exports continue to account for most of Australia’s gas production, with 83% of gas produced in the first half of 2025 used for exports. Declining export volumes coincided with falling domestic gas production and domestic supply.
  • Domestic gas demand continues to fall. In eastern Australia, all major segments saw a fall in consumption between FY2022-23 and FY2024-25, with the exception of the LNG export sector. In Western Australia, falling demand for gas for electricity generation drove a fall in total domestic gas consumption, which coincided with falling domestic spot gas prices.
  • Victoria continues to supply the majority of gas to the southern states, exporting almost 1,030 petajoules (PJ) to other states from 2017 to mid-2025. In contrast, Queensland supplied about 17PJ on a net basis to the southern states over that same period.
  • The role of gas in Asia’s electricity systems is mixed. Growing renewables appear to be displacing gas in some countries, and declining domestic gas production is seeing other countries rely more heavily on coal generation. The few countries that rely on LNG and have a large or growing share of gas generation have high incomes and relatively small landmasses.

Read rest of the report here.

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