A commentary appearing in CNA noted that tariff wars are often justified as necessary to protect or reshore manufacturing jobs and to improve national security. Yet, according to new research, these conflicts produce another outcome that is largely overlooked: pollution. When global supply chains are forced into inefficient detours, it noted carbon dioxide emissions rise.
Says the author Qiyuan XuIn a recent study of the US-China trade conflict’s environmental effects, “my co-authors and I found that tariffs have directly increased global CO2 emissions”.
“Based on our calculations, if both sides were to impose a 60 per cent tariff on imports from the other – a level consistent with the recent escalations in April – this would lead to a one-time increase in global emissions of nearly 410 million tonnes, roughly the same amount produced by 165 million gas-powered cars (with 1.6 litre engines) each travelling 10,000 kilometres,” the author noted.
“In effect, China bears a disproportionate share of the world’s emission-intensive production. According to the UNCTAD-EORA Global Value Chain database, in 2017 (before the trade war between the United States and China began), 33.9 per cent of the carbon embodied in US imports originated in China. These emissions did not vanish once tariffs disrupted bilateral trade; they have either been re-imported by the US through costlier domestic production or diverted to third countries.”
Read the full commentary here.
